Math Matters — After

Has this happened to you? Someone you work with brings a cake to the break room for sharing with work colleagues. Little by little, piece by piece, the cake disappears until only one piece is left. Of course, no one wants to be that person, the one who takes the last piece of cake, so that one remaining piece is subdivided over and over until a pathetic small sliver is left. The cake never is fully consumed, there’s always just bit left.

This is an example of what I’ve come to understand is exponential decay.

If you’ve never heard of exponential decay or its counterpart, exponential growth, you are not alone. However, it is these two terms that describe two very important ideas that have been in play throughout our last year dealing with the Coronavirus, and it is the phenomenon that will continue to impact all of us as we move toward regaining our life BC - Before Covid-19.

This morning’s New York Times carried a guest-authored Opinion piece written by University of Maryland, Baltimore County associate profession Dr. Zoe McLaren. Dr. McLaren explains how the concept of exponential growth can be used to explain the steep rise in COVID cases that impacted us a year ago. And she uses the countering concept of exponential decay to explain why - as COVID caseloads decline, things never really quite get to zero. We can continue to expect improvements in infection rates, especially as safety measures relax and vaccinations increase as long as the movement toward “normal” does not lift too many safety precautions too quickly. However, the road to herd immunity and to resuming our life as it was in the before times will probably not be a straight and steady one, and that is to be expected.

Having an understanding of the statistical risks that may be important for a return to normalcy is one way for me, and maybe for you, to comprehend the enormity of our efforts as we return to “normal”. From time to time, it may feel as if progress is stalling when what really is in play is exponential decay.

To read Dr. McLaren’s article, link to The Math That Explains the End of the Pandemic here.